The Stage 3 tax cuts have been the flavour of the month in the media. Words like “liar”, “backflip” and “broken promises” have splashed front pages of newspapers. Coalition MPs have gone on radio and TV news programs condemning the changes, while Labor MPs have vehemently defended the call through social media posts.
From what we’ve seen in the media, you would think the majority of taxpayers are unhappy with the changes and even more unhappy with Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. But a survey of 1245 voters between January 31 and February 3 by Newspoll tells us otherwise.
While just 38 per cent of survey respondents said they would benefit from Albanese’s revised tax cut plan, 62 per cent of voters said the Prime Minister made the right choice to amend the Stage 3 tax cuts plan.
So, what does this data mean?
Backflip or boost?
It is true that Anthony Albanese changed the government’s position on the Stage 3 tax cuts, a plan which was legislated by the Morrison government in 2019 and due to come into effect in July this year.
It was one of Albanese’s election promises to follow through with the legislated tax cut plan, until he announced earlier this year that the Labor government would be revising the plan to “boost the family budgets of middle Australia”.
Coalition parliamentarians, with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton leading the charge, used this announcement as a chance to attack Albanese and the Labor government for “lying” to taxpayers, backflipping and breaking an election promise.
While that might be true, however hyperbolised, Albanese appeared at the National Press Club of Australia two weeks ago to explain to voters how the changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts might benefit them.
“These tax cuts will provide meaningful help for parents returning to work, particularly women with young children,” Albanese said in his speech.
“Because one of the things that we know is that when women with children are making decisions about how many hours an increase in their take home pay is a powerful incentive.”
Albanese has not shied away from media scrutiny. On Sunday, the Prime Minister spoke with David Speers on ABC’s Insiders, backing the call despite hard questioning.
“Circumstances have changed,” Albanese said in his defence of the tax cut revision, “and what we’ve done is respond to the changes to the economic circumstances.
“I’ve gone to the National Press Club and said, ‘we’ve changed our position’. Why have we done that? Because we’ve listened to people.”
Albanese’s clear communication – in the media, at the Press Club, on social media platforms – has clearly not gone unnoticed. Perhaps voters have seen through the negative messaging from the Opposition and understand that this reform could actually be a good thing.
You’ll get a tax cut on July 1, whether you’re a teacher, a nurse, a cleaner, an engineer, or a truck driver. pic.twitter.com/Ke6b1PBS9Z
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) February 4, 2024
Other changes
It’s not the first time a Prime Minister has changed their position on a policy. In the early weeks of her leadership in July 2010, former Prime Minister Julia Gillard declared she would not be introducing a tax on carbon in Australia.
Just months later in early 2011, Gillard unveiled a carbon tax plan.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the decision was a “historic betrayal” and hinged much of his leadership on negativity and opposition of the Labor Party, as well as Gillard’s broken promise.
Again, it’s not the first time a Coalition leader’s foundation is based on negative messaging. We see much of that now with opposition leader Peter Dutton and his outspoken, divisive discourse on issues such as the Voice to Parliament, Australia Day and now the Stage 3 tax cuts.
However, as the Prime Minister said on ABC’s Insiders, Albanese has been “honest” and “upfront” about the position change on the tax cuts. And perhaps that has made all the difference.
Can we forgive him?
Teal independent Member for Wentworth Allegra Spender’s speech at the National Press Club, one week after Albanese’s, also backs up what the Newspoll data suggests. As the MP for Australia’s wealthiest electorate, Spender put the call out to hear from her constituents on how they feel about Albanese’s announcement to revise the tax cut plan.
Spender said the Wentworth electorate is split on the call – but on the whole, “most people are saying this is a good thing”, despite having the “biggest proportion of people who are going to lose out”.
“There’s actually a really significant group of people who would have benefited, who are also saying, you know what, we want to help other people. This is a really hard time right now,” she told the Press Club.
There is some truth to the messaging of the Coalition beyond the negative, damning attacks on the Labor party. As Spender rightly pointed out, a lot of high income earners were banking on the original Stage 3 tax cuts plan and feel “completely let down” by the changes.
But I think what Spender’s speech and the Newspoll data tells us, is that the majority of people know that there are others doing it tougher, and it’s those people who will benefit from the changes the most.
So maybe Albo’s “broken promise” isn’t such a bad thing. If Newspoll’s data is right, people care about those who are most affected by cost of living. Humanity wins, negativity loses, and maybe this time we can forgive Albanese for a broken promise.